Every breaking change that consumers must incorporate into their own code incurs a cost to them. There is the immediate cost of the consumers who are forced to change their own code to adapt to the newer version, but the far higher cost is the inconsistency introduced into the ecosystem and the resulting potential for diamond dependency conflicts. The deeper a library is in the dependency tree, the higher the inconsistency cost, regardless of the magnitude of the direct change cost.
Consequently, a library should try to maintain API stability as long as possible. It’s hard to recommend a frequency for all cases because of the widely varying cost. On one end of the spectrum are pre-1.0 libraries which don’t promise stability, and which can have breaking changes between every release. On the other end are Java standard libraries which all libraries depend on, most of whose classes have not had any breaking changes since they were introduced. As an anchoring point, no more than once every five years might be a good default for any library used by other open source libraries. In the end, the decision depends a lot on the needs of the consumers.
One thing to keep in mind is that many consumers are highly resistant to accepting breaking changes for various reasons:
As soon as you introduce breaking changes, they might decide to stick with the last working version indefinitely. For example, Hadoop added a dependency on Guava 11.0.2 in May of 2012, and didn’t upgrade it until March of 2017 (nearly five years later).
Changes to your API surface that customers don’t have to incorporate into their own code are a different story. One example is using a different Java package and Maven ID when releasing a new major version. However, there is a caveat: this only applies as long as the old major version is still maintained. As soon as the old major version is no longer supported, customers who want continued support incur breaking changes. In this case, the transition can be seen as a “virtual breaking change.” The same rules apply here: maintain stability as long as needed by the consumers.